O Brother, Where Start Thou? Sibling Spillovers on College and Major Choice in Four Countries
Family and social networks are widely believed to inﬂuence important life decisions but identifying their causal eﬀects is notoriously diﬃcult. Using admissions thresholds that directly aﬀect older but not younger siblings’ college options, we present evidence from the United States, Chile, Sweden and Croatia that older siblings’ college and major choices can signiﬁcantly inﬂuence their younger siblings’ college and major choices. On the extensive margin, an older sibling’s enrollment in a better college increases a younger sibling’s probability of enrolling in college at all, especially for families with low predicted probabilities of enrollment. On the intensive margin, an older sibling’s choice of college or major increases the probability that a younger sibling applies to and enrolls in that same college or major. Spillovers in major choice are stronger when older siblings enroll and succeed in more selective and higher-earning majors. The observed spillovers are not well-explained by price, income, proximity or legacy eﬀects, but are most consistent with older siblings transmitting otherwise unavailable information about the college experience and its potential returns. The importance of such personally salient information may partly explain persistent diﬀerences in college-going rates by geography, income, and other determinants of social networks.
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