Measuring the Effect of CETA Participation on Movements In and Out of Employment


In this paper we present several alternative estimators of the
effect of CETA participation on movements in and out of employment.
Using Social Security earnings records for 1970 to 1979, we construct
employment histories for adult males in the 1976 CETA cohort and control group drawn from the Current Population Study. Our results suggest
that CETA participation had a small to moderately large impact on the
probability of employment. The estimated effects of classroom training
programs are uniformly larger than the effects of non—classroom programs
For both programs, the largest estimates are obtained from a random-
effects specification which expresses the probability of employment as a
function of year effects, previous employment experience and training
effects. We find that a relatively simple first~order Markov model
together with a four grid-point distribution of individual effects is
remarkably consistent with the employment data for both trainees and
controls. The smallest program estimates are obtained from an exact
match procedure which compares post-training employment outcomes of
trainees and controls with identical pre-training histories. The
matched comparisons also highlight some of the difficulties in using
nonexperimental data to evaluate the effectiveness of training.

Year of Publication
Date Published
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Citation Key
Econometrica 56, May 1988
Working Papers