This paper presents evidence on two aspects of strike activity
associated with the renegotiation of union contracts: the effects of
contract characteristics on dispute probabilities; and the variation in
strike activity over tine within bargaining pairs. Cross-sectional and
longitudinal estimation techniques show that strike probabilities are
higher in summer and fall than winter and spring. Strike probabilities
are also increased by increasing the length of time between negotiations, and reduced in limited wage reopening negotiations. Finally,
strike probabilities are significantly affected by lagged strike out-
comes. Relative to a peaceful settlement of the previous contract,
strike probabilities are l0 percentage points higher following a strike
of two weeks or less, and 5 to 7 percentage points lower following a
strike of longer than two weeks.
state dependence
The labor force participation behavior of married women, particularly their responses to husbands’ labor
market outcomes and the effects of fertility variables, is modeled using longitudinal data to control for
a rich dynamic structure. Simulation methods provide a feasible approach to overcome the computational
difficulties inherent in classical maximum likelihood estimation of models with non-trivial error structures.
The models are estimated using the method of maximum simulated likelihood (MSL) estimation. The
empirical results imply that women’s participation outcomes are characterised by significant structural state
dependence, unobserved heterogeneity, and serially correlated transitory latent component of error. The
results show that the effect of husbands’ permanent earnings on the participation decision is significantly
stronger than that of current earnings; however, the implied income elasticities of participation are small,
on the order of -0.10. The results also provide strong evidence that fertility variables are not exogenous
to women’s participation decisions. Although MSL estimation is biased for a finite number of simulations,
I provide Monte Carlo evidence that suggests the simulation bias in the estimators is generally not large
relative to the sampling errors, except when there is positive serial correlation and either significant
heterogeneity or state dependence, or when the form of the unobserved heterogeneity is misspecified. In
these cases, the estimated serial correlation and state dependence effects have substantial negative and
positive bias, respectively.