Nikolaj Harmon

First name
Nikolaj
Last name
Harmon
Abstract

I study the impact of immigration and ethnic diversity on political outcomes in immigrant receiving countries, focusing on the case of election outcomes and immigration in Danish
municipalities 1981-2001. A rich set of control variables isolates ethnic diversity effects from that of other immigrant characteristics and a novel IV strategy based on historical housing stock data addresses issues of endogenous location choice of immigrants. Immigration-driven
increases in ethnic diversity improve electoral outcomes for anti-immigrant nationalist parties. Increased nationalist success comes primarily at the expense of traditional left-wing parties,
although to a lesser extent possibly also at the expense of the non-nationalist right-wing parties.
The effects of immigration and ethnic diversity does not differ between municipal and national
elections, despite the very different issues decided at the two levels of government.

Year of Publication
2012
Number
569
Date Published
02/2012
Publication Language
eng
Citation Key
7838
Harmon, N. (2012). Immigration, Ethnic Diversity and Political Outcomes: Evidence from Denmark. Retrieved from http://arks.princeton.edu/ark:/88435/dsp01xw42n792m (Original work published February 2012)
Working Papers
Abstract

Over the last several decades global migration flows have increased rapidly, resulting in corresponding increases in the number and sizes of ethnic minorities in many places - Western Europe in particular. Given the existing theory and evidence of a negative relationship between ethnic diversity and public goods, a simple extrapolation thus suggests that the large public sectors in Western Europe will shrink. However, stark differences in the histories of ethnic conflict, quality of institutions and timing between the European case and the settings studied in the existing literature raises concerns that such an extrapolation might be misguided. Using data on municipal elections and budgetary outcomes in Danish municipalities 1981-2001 this paper attempts to address these concerns. Employing a rich set of controls and an IV strategy based on historical housing data, the main results of the paper show that ethnic diversity has impacted outcomes of municipal elections in a way consistent with lower public good demand. Using a simple theoretical model to disentangle ethnic diversity effects from other budgetary effects, the paper further shows that the same holds true for budgetary outcomes, although an untestable but plausible auxiliary assumption is required on the budgetary process. The findings have important implications for immigration and refugee policy both in Europe and more broadly.

Year of Publication
2010
Number
560
Date Published
12/2010
Publication Language
eng
Citation Key
8078
Harmon, N. (2010). The End of the European Welfare States? Migration, Ethnic Diversity and Public Goods. Retrieved from http://arks.princeton.edu/ark:/88435/dsp01c247ds102 (Original work published December 2010)
Working Papers