Throughout the late 1980s unemployment rates remained 2-3 percentage
points higher in Canada than the U.S. We use individual microdata from the
U.S. Current Population Survey and the Canadian Survey of Consumer Finances
to study the emerging unemployment gap between the two countries. For
women, we find that the relative rise in Canadian unemployment occurred
with relative increases in per capita weeks of work. The unemployment gap
for Canadian women was driven by a rise in the probability that nonworkers
are classified as "unemployed" as opposed to "out of the labor force". For
men, the increase in unemployment was accompanied by a relative decrease in
Canadian employment rates, and an increase in the probability that men with
no weeks of work are classified as "in the labor force". A comparison of
annual work patterns and income recipiency in the two countries suggests
that Canadians of both sexes have increasingly adjusted their labor supply
to the parameters of the Canadian Unemployment Insurance system.

This paper re-examines the connection between unions and wage
inequality, focussing on three questions: (1) How does the union wage
effect vary across the wage distribution? (2) What is the effect of
unionism on the overall variance of wages at the end of the 1980s?
(3) How much of the increase in the variance of wages over the 1970s
and 1980s can be attributed to changes in the level and distribution
of union coverage?
Cross-sectional union wage gap estimates vary over the wage
distribution, ranging from over 30 percent for lower wage workers to
-10 percent for higher wage workers. Using a longitudinal estimation
technique that accounts for misclassification errors in union status,
I find that this variation represents a combination of a truly larger
wage effect for lower-paid workers, and differential selection
biases.
The estimated effect of unions on the variance of wages in the
late 1980s is relatively modest. Nevertheless, changes in the level
and pattern of unionism -- particularly the decline of unions among
lower wage workers -- have been an important component of the growth
in wage inequality. Changes in unionization account for one-fifth of
the increase of the variance of adult male wages between 1973 and
1987.

Although schooling and earnings are highly correlated, social
scientists have argued for decades over the causal effect of education. A
convincing analysis of the causal link between education and earnings
requires an exogenous source of variation in education outcomes. This
paper explores the use of college proximity as an exogenous determinant of
schooling. An examination of the NLS Young Men Cohort reveals that men who
grew up in local labor markets with a nearby college have significantly
higher education and significantly higher earnings than other men. The
education and earnings gains are concentrated among men with poorly-
educated parents -- men who would otherwise stop schooling at relatively
low levels. When college proximity is taken as an exogenous determinant of
schooling the implied instrumental variables estimates of the return to
schooling are 25-60% higher than conventional ordinary least squares
estimates.
Since the effect of a nearby college on schooling attainment varies by
family background it is possible to test whether college proximity is a
legitimately exogenous determinant of schooling. The results affirm that
marginal returns to education among children of less-educated parents are
as high and perhaps much higher than the rates of return estimated by
conventional methods.

The Self-Sufficiency Project (SSP) is a large-scale social experiment being conducted in Canada to
evaluate the effects of an eamings supplement (or subsidy) for long-term welfare recipients who find a
full-time job and leave income assistance. The supplement is available to single parents who have
received income assistance for a year or more, and typically doubles the gross take-home pay of
recipients. An important concern is whether the availability of the supplement would lead some new
income assistance recipients to prolong their stay on welfare in order to gain eligibility. A separate
experiment was conducted with new welfare recipients to measure the magnitude of this effect. One
half of a group of new recipients were informed that would be eligible to receive SSP if they stayed on
income assistance for a year; the other half were randomly assigned to a control group. Our analysis
indicates a very modest "delayed exit" effect among the treatment group relative to the controls.

In this paper we present several alternative estimators of the
effect of CETA participation on movements in and out of employment.
Using Social Security earnings records for 1970 to 1979, we construct
employment histories for adult males in the 1976 CETA cohort and control group drawn from the Current Population Study. Our results suggest
that CETA participation had a small to moderately large impact on the
probability of employment. The estimated effects of classroom training
programs are uniformly larger than the effects of non—classroom programs
For both programs, the largest estimates are obtained from a random-
effects specification which expresses the probability of employment as a
function of year effects, previous employment experience and training
effects. We find that a relatively simple first~order Markov model
together with a four grid-point distribution of individual effects is
remarkably consistent with the employment data for both trainees and
controls. The smallest program estimates are obtained from an exact
match procedure which compares post-training employment outcomes of
trainees and controls with identical pre-training histories. The
matched comparisons also highlight some of the difficulties in using
nonexperimental data to evaluate the effectiveness of training.

Is there a systematic relation between wage rates and strike out-
cones? This paper addresses the question using a panel of over 2,000
collective bargaining agreements from the Canadian manufacturing sector.
Contrary to the implications of recent signalling and sequential
bargaining models, there is no correlation between contract real wage
rates and strike duration or incidence. Furthermore, lagged strike out-
comes do not affect future wage settlements. On the other hand, there
is some evidence that contract wages affect future strike outcomes, and
also that lagged strike outcomes affect future strike probabilities.

The US unemployment insurance system is financed by an experience-rated
payroll tax. The system imposes a layoff or firing cost on employers, leading
them to fire fewer workers in a downturn and hire fewer workers in an upturn.
Increases in the degree of experience rating are therefore predicted to reduce
the temporary layoff unemployment rate in a recession, and to lower employment
at the peak of the business cycle.
We combine Current Population Survey data for l979-1987 with a newly
assembled database of experience rating factors for individual states and
industries to measure the effects of imperfect experience rating on temporary
layoff unemployment rates over the cycle. We find a strong negative
correlation between the degree of experience rating and the rate of layoff
unemployment in recessionary years, but smaller and unsystematic correlations
in expansionary years. We also find that cyclical employment fluctuations are
dampened in states and industries with a greater degree of experience rating.