This paper analyses the distributional impact of the 1990 and 1991
increases in the federal minimum wage. The rise in the federal minimum wage
had very different impacts across states, depending on state-specific minimum
wage floors and the overall level of wages in each state. In states with a
higher fraction of workers affected by the minimum wage change, we find that
the minimum wage hike generated significant increases in the lower percentiles
of wages, and significant reductions in wage dispersion. The higher minimum
wage also led to increases in the lower percentiles of the family earnings
distribution, and a narrowing of the dispersion in family earnings. We find
some evidence that the increase in the minimum wage lowered poverty rates for
families with some attachment to the labor market.

This paper presents new evidence on the relevance of nominal
contracting models for employment determination in long term union
contracts. A key aspect of these contracts, much emphasized in the
macroeconomics literature, is the predetermined nature of nominal
wages. Real wage rates therefore contain unanticipated components
that reflect unexpected changes in prices and the degree of
indexation in the contract. The empirical analysis, based on a
sample of 1300 indexed and non-indexed contracts from the Canadian
manufacturing sector, indicates that unexpected real wage changes are
associated with systematic employment responses in the opposite
direction. I conclude that nominal contracting provisions play a
potentially important role in the cyclical properties and persistence
of employment in the union sector.

We study strike durations and outcomes for some 2000 disputes that occurred
between 1881 and 1886. Most post-strike bargaining settlements in the 1880s fell
into one of two categories: either a union "victory", characterized by a
significant wage gain or hours cut, or a union "defeat", characterized by the
resumption of work at the previous terms of employment. We find a strong
negative relation between strike duration and the value of the settlement to
workers, reflecting the declining probability of a union victory among longer
strikes. For the subset of strikes over wage increases we estimate a structural
model that includes equations for the capitulation times of the two parties and
a specification of the wage increase conditional on a union victory. We find
strong support for a relative bargaining power hypothesis: factors that enhance
the workers’ ability to withstand a strike tend to raise the wage increase in the
event of a successful strike, while factors that enhance the employer's ability
to withstand a strike tend to lower the wage increase in the event of a union
victory.

This paper reviews Robert Lalonde's contributions to labor economics and introduces a set of papers that were written in his honor and presented to him in the spring of 2015 at a conference held in his honor in Chicago.

This paper presents a series of event studies that measure the stock market
reaction to news about the minimum wage. We use two samples of firms: a broad
sample of companies in low-wage industries; and a narrow sample of firms that
mentioned the cost effects of the federal minimum wage in their recent annual
reports. Our analysis of legislative events leading up to the 1989 amendments
to the Fair Labor Standards Act shows little systematic effect on the market
value of low-wage companies. We also analyze a series of events associated with
a confidential memo from the Secretary of Labor that was leaked in mid-1993.
Here, the stock market reactions suggest that news of a possible change in the
minimum wage may have a modest effect on value of low-wage companies.

The lifecycle labor supply model has been proposed as an
explanation for various dimensions of labor supply, including
movements over the business cycle, changes with age, and within-
person variation over time. According to the model, all of these
elements are tied together by a combination of intertemporal
substitution effects and wealth effects. This paper offers an
assessment of the model's ability to explain the main components of
labor supply, focusing on microeconometric evidence for men.

This paper presents results from an experimental evaluation of an earnings supplement program offered
to long-term welfare recipients in two Canadian provinces. The program -- known as the Self-Sufficiency
Project - provides a supplement equal to one-half of the difference between an earnings target ($2,500 or
$3083 per month, Canadian dollars, depending on the province) and the individual's actual earnings. The
supplement is similar to a negative income tax with two important differences: (1) eligibility is limited to
long-term welfare recipients who find a full-time job (30 hours per week or more); and (2) the supplement
payment is based on individual earnings rather than family income. The evaluation is based on a
randomized design that will follow 6,000 individuals for five years. Early findings for a first cohort of
2,000 individuals observed over 18 months of program eligibility suggest that the financial incentives of
the Self-Sufficiency Program significantly increase labor market attachment and significantly reduce
welfare participation.

It has become standard practice to use local linear regressions in regression discontinuity designs.
This paper highlights that the same theoretical arguments used to justify local linear regression suggest
that alternative local polynomials could be preferred. We show in simulations that the local linear estimator
is often dominated by alternative polynomial specifications. Additionally, we provide guidance on the
selection of the polynomial order. The Monte Carlo evidence shows that the order-selection procedure
(which is also readily adapted to fuzzy regression discontinuity and regression kink designs) performs
well, particularly with large sample sizes typically found in empirical applications.

Between 1960 and 1980 the gap in earnings between black and white
males narrowed by 15 percent. A detailed analysis of 1960, 1970, and 1980
Census data indicates that increases in the relative return to education
were largely responsible for black workers’ relative earnings gains. One
explanation for these higher returns is that they reflect the market
valuation of higher-quality schooling available to later cohorts of black
students. To investigate the role of school quality in the convergence of
black and white earnings, we have assembled data on three aspects of school
quality -- pupil/teacher ratios, annual teacher pay, and term length -- for
black and white schools in l8 segregated states from 1915 to 1966. The
school quality data are then linked to estimated rates of return to
education for men from different cohorts and states. Improvements in the
relative quality of black schools explain roughly 20 percent of the
narrowing of the black-white earnings gap in this period.